Measured in Blood: The Power to Hurt and the Public Appetite for War

How does the imposition of costs on an adversary—what Schelling called the “power to hurt”—shape public support for military conflict? Although the coercion literature views imposed costs as central to bargaining and war termination, research on wartime public opinion has largely ignored enemy casualties, focusing instead on friendly losses. This study simultaneously examines the micro-foundations for coercion and extends the literature on wartime public opinion by examining whether and how citizens respond to information about enemy casualties—the costs that are, in effect, measured in blood. Using a preregistered survey experiment simulating a Sino-American conflict over Taiwan, we find that higher enemy casualty figures significantly increase support for continued engagement. This effect is driven by respondents’ perceptions of battlefield advantage and the likelihood of victory. These results suggest that enemy casualties have the potential to exacerbate or offset the concerns about friendly casualties as predicted by the literature on coercion.